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Edenred (NR, A-; S) {EDEN FP Equity} 1Q24 Earnings

CONSUMER CYCLICALS
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  • Reported a slight beat at €685m (organic +21%yoy) & kept FY24 targets unch at EBITDA >+12% & FCF conversion against that of >70%.
  • Not much re. regulation in France/Italy; views the €20m Italian prosecutors asked to side-line as "maximum risk we have" given proceeds from the tender in question. Expects first-round of court decision in 2-years.
  • Unfortunately co does not provide Italy financials and/or guidance for read-through impact. Equity analyst (from what we've seen) seem quiet sanguine on any impact.
  • Says €2b of firepower on M&A (unch from FY23 results & says fine under A- ratings). For reference had €3.4b in cash & eqv's at the end of last year at a leverage of ~1* (on EBITDA of 1.1b) but has done 2 acquisitions already.
  • Expectations are for €800m in FCF this year, 300m in dividend this year with a €300m buyback programme out to 2027.

As mentioned last week, curve back to (relative) wides getting the tobacco treatment (in-line with PM). We don't see any note of concern in earnings yet, run up on leverage through acquisitions has been managed well in the past.

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  • Reported a slight beat at €685m (organic +21%yoy) & kept FY24 targets unch at EBITDA >+12% & FCF conversion against that of >70%.
  • Not much re. regulation in France/Italy; views the €20m Italian prosecutors asked to side-line as "maximum risk we have" given proceeds from the tender in question. Expects first-round of court decision in 2-years.
  • Unfortunately co does not provide Italy financials and/or guidance for read-through impact. Equity analyst (from what we've seen) seem quiet sanguine on any impact.
  • Says €2b of firepower on M&A (unch from FY23 results & says fine under A- ratings). For reference had €3.4b in cash & eqv's at the end of last year at a leverage of ~1* (on EBITDA of 1.1b) but has done 2 acquisitions already.
  • Expectations are for €800m in FCF this year, 300m in dividend this year with a €300m buyback programme out to 2027.

As mentioned last week, curve back to (relative) wides getting the tobacco treatment (in-line with PM). We don't see any note of concern in earnings yet, run up on leverage through acquisitions has been managed well in the past.