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Efforts To Unblock EU Funding Stall, Poland's Core CPI On Tap

POLAND
  • Poland's efforts to secure access to EU recovery funds have stalled after President Andrzej Duda made a veiled threat to veto court reforms agreed with the European Commission. Press reports suggested that Duda's speech surprised ruling party lawmakers, with the President drawing red lines around the constitutionality of the legislation and Poland's right to sovereignty in deciding about its judicial system. The bill has been removed from parliament's agenda and the ruling party said it now expects to table it again on January 11, following a period of consultations which will involve the representatives of the Presidential Palace. The delay in passing the bill may push back the release of EU funds earmarked for Poland.
  • NBP's Gabriela Maslowska told Radio Maryja that she expects the next move in interest rates to be a cut, which could happen in 2024. She added that lowering rates as soon as next year seems less probable but cannot be ruled out, in case of a sharp decline in inflation. Market pricing based on FRA 12x15 contracts still implies rate cuts next year, albeit hawkish NBP members have recently argued that it is way too early to talk about easing.
  • The local statistics bureau will release core CPI figures for November. BBG consensus forecast calls for a +11.3% Y/Y reading, albeit several local sell-side desks have estimated that core inflation could print at +11.4%, based on headline data published yesterday.
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