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EUROZONE ISSUANCE: EGB Supply

EUROZONE ISSUANCE
EurozoneBulletMarketsFixed Income Bullets

France and Lithuania have both announced syndication mandates while Germany and France are both still due to hold auctions this week. We pencil in further syndications from Finland and Spain. Already this week, the EFSF has held a syndication and Slovakia has held an auction. We look for estimated gross issuance for the week at E55.6bln, up fromE42.2bln last week.

  • On Monday, France announced a mandate for a new long 15 year OAT maturing 25 May 2042. We had thought that May 2042 was the most likely 15-20 year OAT that would be sold and pencil in a E5-8bln transaction size with upside risks of E9-10bln. We now expect the transaction to take place today.
    • MNI had pencilled in a French syndication for next week (rather than this week due to the MT/IL auction on Thursday).
  • Also on Monday, Lithuania announced a dual-tranche mandate for a new 5-year LITHUN EMTN maturing January 2030 and a new 15-year LITHUN EMTN maturing January 2040. We expect the transaction to take place today.
    • Lithuania’s gross borrowing requirement for 2025 is E8.8bln of which E6.0bln is expected to be raised from EMTNs. This increases the scope for a larger Lithuanian syndication than we have seen in recent years (and note this will be the first dual-tranche Lithuanian transaction to see two new issues since April 2020).
    • We pencil in E750mln to E1.5bln to be sold in each tranche, with a total deal size at least matching the E2.0bln sold in the April 2020 syndication (and the possibility of E2.5-3.0bln).
  • Today, Germany will hold a Green auction to sell E1bln of the 2.10% Apr-29 Green Bobl (ISIN: DE000BU35025) and E1bln of the 2.30% Feb-33 Green Bund (ISIN: DE000BU3Z005).

For more details on issuance this week and next week see the full document here: EZ250121.pdf

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France and Lithuania have both announced syndication mandates while Germany and France are both still due to hold auctions this week. We pencil in further syndications from Finland and Spain. Already this week, the EFSF has held a syndication and Slovakia has held an auction. We look for estimated gross issuance for the week at E55.6bln, up fromE42.2bln last week.

  • On Monday, France announced a mandate for a new long 15 year OAT maturing 25 May 2042. We had thought that May 2042 was the most likely 15-20 year OAT that would be sold and pencil in a E5-8bln transaction size with upside risks of E9-10bln. We now expect the transaction to take place today.
    • MNI had pencilled in a French syndication for next week (rather than this week due to the MT/IL auction on Thursday).
  • Also on Monday, Lithuania announced a dual-tranche mandate for a new 5-year LITHUN EMTN maturing January 2030 and a new 15-year LITHUN EMTN maturing January 2040. We expect the transaction to take place today.
    • Lithuania’s gross borrowing requirement for 2025 is E8.8bln of which E6.0bln is expected to be raised from EMTNs. This increases the scope for a larger Lithuanian syndication than we have seen in recent years (and note this will be the first dual-tranche Lithuanian transaction to see two new issues since April 2020).
    • We pencil in E750mln to E1.5bln to be sold in each tranche, with a total deal size at least matching the E2.0bln sold in the April 2020 syndication (and the possibility of E2.5-3.0bln).
  • Today, Germany will hold a Green auction to sell E1bln of the 2.10% Apr-29 Green Bobl (ISIN: DE000BU35025) and E1bln of the 2.30% Feb-33 Green Bund (ISIN: DE000BU3Z005).

For more details on issuance this week and next week see the full document here: EZ250121.pdf