EGB Supply for W/C Jan 4th, 2021

Germany, Spain and France will issue EGBs via auction in the W/C Jan 4th, 2021. We estimate E28.0bln of supply from these countries. In addition, Italy, Ireland and Slovenia have also announced plans for syndicated sales this week, and there could be more countries announcing syndications in the coming days.

• Issuance: We expect the three announced syndications to take place on Tuesday. Italy will launch a new long 15-year BTP, maturing Mar-37. Ireland will launch a new long 10-year benchmark, maturing Oct-31. Slovenia will hold a dual tranche syndication, launching a new 10-year benchmark due Jan-31 and re-opening the 30-year 0.4875% Oct-50. Germany will hold the first two EGB auctions of 2021. On Tuesday, E6bln of the 0% Dec-22 Schatz will be on offer while on Wednesday the new 10-year Bund maturing Feb-31 will be launched with E5bln set to be sold. Spain and France will both come to the market on Thursday. Spain aims to raise E5-6bln through nominal sales and will launch the new 3-year Bono, the 0% May-24 and re-open the 0% Jan-26 Bono and the 1.00% Oct-50 Obli. It will also aim to sell E250-750mln of the 0.70% Nov-33 Obli-Ei. Amounts on offer will be confirmed on Monday. France will conclude issuance for the week with E9.5-11.0bln of L/T OATs. On offer are the 0% Nov-30 OAT, the 0.50% May-40 OAT and the 0.75% May-52 OAT.
• CASH FLOWS: E19.1bln of redemptions (of which E19.0bln are a maturing Bund) and E5.7bln of coupons (again almost exclusively from Germany) will see net flows excluding syndications for the week of E3.2bln. The prior week saw no issuance with small coupon and redemption payments totaling E0.8bln.

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