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EGB Supply For W/C Mar 28, 2022

EUROZONE ISSUANCE

The EFSF, the EU, Italy and Belgium are all due to sell bonds next week. We look for gross nominal issuance of E11.5bln, down from E35.2bln this week.

  • The EFSF has issued an RFP for a syndication next week. We expect the transaction early in the week but we do not have a strong view on the size / maturity expected. The EFSF has moved away from quarterly issuance updates to a more flexible annual issuance target, but this makes it harder to estimate how much they are looking to front-load issuance in 2022 (if at all).
  • The EU will kick off auctions for the week on Monday with up to E2.5bln of the 7-year 0% Oct-28 EU NGEU bond on offer (ISIN: EU000A3KWCF4).
  • On Wednesday, Italy will come to the market with 5/10-year BTPs and a CCTeu auction pencilled in. We expect the MEF to continue to build up the 1.10% Apr-27 BTP (ISIN: IT0005484552 ) and 0.95% Jun-32 BTP (ISIN: IT0005466013 ). We think there is a good chance that the CCTeu auction is cancelled following this week's syndication. Details of what is offer will be announced later today.
  • Issuance for the week will conclude on Friday with Belgium holding an ORI facility operation for up to E500mln. Details will be confirmed on Thursday afternoon.
NET NOMINAL FLOWS: There are two notable upcoming redemptions: a Belgian OLO originally issued as in 2006 with a 15-year maturity for E12.9bln as well as a formerly 5-year Italian BTP for E16.7bln. Coupon payments are expected to come in at E5.1bln (with E4.2bln from Finland). This would leave net estimated net flows for the week at negative E23.1bln (down from positive E31.5bln this week).
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