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EGB Supply W/C 2 January, 2023

EUROZONE ISSUANCE

Germany and France are both due to hold auctions next week with estimated gross nominal issuance of E17.0bln at auction. There is also a high chance that we will see syndications with Italy, Ireland (probably 10-year) and Slovenia the most likely candidates, we pencil in E12.25bln for these deals. We also look for syndications from Belgium (10-year), the EFSF, Portugal and Spain (10-year) in the first half of January, potentially also as early as next week.

  • Germany will kick off the auction calendar for 2023 with E5bln of the 2.20% Dec-24 Schatz (ISIN: DE0001104909) on offer on Wednesday.
  • On Thursday, France will look to sell E10.5-12.0bln of LT OATs. On offer will be the 2.00% Nov-32 OAT (ISIN: FR001400BKZ3), the 1.25% May-38 OAT (ISIN: FR0014009O62), the 0.75% May-53 OAT (ISIN: FR0014004J31) and the 1.75% May-66 OAT (ISIN: FR0013154028).
  • Portugal and Spain are also likely to release their 2023 funding plans next week.

NET NOMINAL FLOWS: The upcoming week will see no redemptions and E5.2bln of coupon payments (of which E4.8bln are German and E0.4bln Italian). With estimated issuance of E29.3bln we look for net flows of E24.0bln in the week ahead.

For more see the EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix here.

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