EGB Supply - W/C 24 April, 2023 (2/2)

• On Thursday, Italy will hold a 5/10-year/CCTeu auction. We look for a reopening of the 5-year 3.40% Apr-28 BTP (ISIN: IT0005521981) (although a new 5-year BTP is a possibility), a new 10-year Nov-33 BTP (although a reopening of the 4.40% May-33 BTP (ISIN: IT0005518128) is possible if a new 5-year BTP is launched) and a reopening of the 0.80% Oct-28 CCTeu (ISIN: IT0005534984).
• Also on Thursday, Finland will hold an ORI operation with details of the RFGBs on offer to be announced on Tuesday. This will only be the second ORI operation with the inaugural operation on 9 March seeing a total of E400mln sold across the 0.875% Sep-25 RFGB (ISIN: FI4000167317) and the 0.50% Sep-28 RFGB (ISIN: FI4000348727). The latter is unlikely to be on offer at this operation in our view as it is due to be reopened at auction on 18 April.
• Germany held investor meetings this week which started on Tuesday 18 April to present its Green Bond presentation (that was released on Monday 17 April). We would expect a syndicated transaction to follow, potentially in the upcoming week. We pencil in a transaction size of E4-5bln. Germany’s 2023 funding plan included two green syndications this year: a 10-year transaction and a longer-maturity transaction. The next Green auction is not due to be held until 7 June.

NET NOMINAL FLOWS: This week sees redemptions totalling E13.6bln (E3.0bln of a formerly 3-year ESM-bond and E9.8bln of a formerly 30-year OAT). Coupons for the week total E9.9bln, of which E9.3bln are Spanish. With estimated gross nominal issuance of E26.9bln in the week, we look for net flows of positive E3.4bln in the week, up from positive E0.7bln last week.