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EGB Supply - W/C February 13, 2023 (1/2)

EUROZONE ISSUANCE

Italy, Germany, Spain and France will all hold auctions this week and we also pencil in syndications from the EU, Belgium and Italy. If we were to see all of these deals we could see gross issuance as high as E46.3bln, with scheduled auctions making up E29.3bln. Either way, we would look for gross nominal issuance of more than last week’s E18.5bln.

  • The EU has a syndication scheduled for this week. We expect the transaction to take place on Tuesday with the mandate released on Monday.
  • We still look for a Belgian 20/30-year OLO next week via syndication. We would expect the mandate for this to be announced on Monday and for the auction for 20 February to be cancelled as a result. If we do not receive the mandate on Monday we expect the transaction will be delayed further.
  • We also pencil in an Italian syndication. We think that the probability of this has increased following the announcement that the longest maturity BTP on offer at Tuesday’s auction is the 15-year BTP. We would expect an Italian syndication to take place potentially on Wednesday or even Friday next week.
  • In terms of auctions, Italy will kick off the week on Tuesday with on-the-run 3/7/15-year BTPs on offer: E3.0-3.5bln of the 3.50% Jan26 BTP (ISIN: IT0005514473), E3.0-3.5bln of the 3.85% Dec-29 BTP (ISIN: IT0005519787) and E1.0-1.5bln of the 3.25% Mar-38 BTP (ISIN: IT0005496770)
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