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EGBS: 10-year Spreads Tighten On French PM Announcement

EGBS

10-year peripheral spreads to Bunds have tightened following the announcement of Michel Barnier as the new French PM, with high-beta BTPs outperforming. The BTP/Bund spread is around ~141.5bps, ~2bps tighter today.

  • Earlier, BTP futures were unmoved by news that the Italian Government aims to bring its deficit below the EU’s 3% threshold by 2026, with similar reports having already been released by Bloomberg and Reuters last week.
  • Key resistance in BTP futures remains at 119.90, the August 22 high and bull trigger.
  • Bloomberg consensus sees the Italian budget deficit at 3.7% of GDP by 2026, well above the targeted 3% level.
  • The DEF’s current 2025 deficit forecast of 3.7% also appears optimistic in the eyes of consensus, which expects a 4.1% outturn.
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EurozoneBulletGlobalFixed Income BulletsRegionMarkets

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