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EGBS: Bunds Within Friday’s Range, OATs Remain Attuned To Fiscal Risks

EGBS
EurozoneBulletGlobalFixed Income BulletsRegionMarkets

Bund futures ignore the latest round of Chinese property stimulus and subsequent rally in Chinese equities, sticking to a narrow 20-tick range.

  • Contract last +9 at 134.90. Resistance at the Sep 27 high (135.19), support at the Sep 27 low (134.31).
  • France is reportedly considering a temporary tax on companies generating over EUR1bn in revenue and a tax on stock buybacks as it looks to address its well-documented fiscal issues. PM Barnier will speak tomorrow.
  • J.P.Morgan have recommend a “5s/10s France steepener vs. Germany as an attractive low-beta hedge against disruptive French budget tail risk scenarios and risks of potential rating downgrades.”
  • German state and national CPI is due today,
  • Italian, Portuguese & Irish CPI data is also scheduled.
  • Eurozone-wide HICP data is due tomorrow.
  • Multiple sell-side names now call for an October ECB cut following last week’s soft French & Spanish inflation readings.
  • ~20bp of easing is priced in for the October meeting.
  • Elsewhere, ECB President Lagarde will speak in the EU parliament.
  • Fed Chair Powell will speak late in the day (18:55 London). This week’s major U.S. data release comes in the form of Friday’s NFP release.
  • No EUR sovereign issuance of note scheduled for today.
  • Also watch the situation in the Middle East after an Israeli strike late Friday killed the leader of Hezbollah.
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Bund futures ignore the latest round of Chinese property stimulus and subsequent rally in Chinese equities, sticking to a narrow 20-tick range.

  • Contract last +9 at 134.90. Resistance at the Sep 27 high (135.19), support at the Sep 27 low (134.31).
  • France is reportedly considering a temporary tax on companies generating over EUR1bn in revenue and a tax on stock buybacks as it looks to address its well-documented fiscal issues. PM Barnier will speak tomorrow.
  • J.P.Morgan have recommend a “5s/10s France steepener vs. Germany as an attractive low-beta hedge against disruptive French budget tail risk scenarios and risks of potential rating downgrades.”
  • German state and national CPI is due today,
  • Italian, Portuguese & Irish CPI data is also scheduled.
  • Eurozone-wide HICP data is due tomorrow.
  • Multiple sell-side names now call for an October ECB cut following last week’s soft French & Spanish inflation readings.
  • ~20bp of easing is priced in for the October meeting.
  • Elsewhere, ECB President Lagarde will speak in the EU parliament.
  • Fed Chair Powell will speak late in the day (18:55 London). This week’s major U.S. data release comes in the form of Friday’s NFP release.
  • No EUR sovereign issuance of note scheduled for today.
  • Also watch the situation in the Middle East after an Israeli strike late Friday killed the leader of Hezbollah.