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EGBs driving Treasuries and gilts lower in early trading

BONDS
  • It has been a weak start for core fixed income, with Bunds pulling Treasuries lower on the European open and gilts also opening with weakness.
  • There is no obvious headline driver for the moves, with markets already starting to look ahead to Thursday's ECB meeting where a 25bp hike is expected (29bp priced by markets). Unless there is a surprise with a bigger hike, the communication surrounding further moves will be key - as will discussions of the anti-fragmentation tool.
  • The big events of the day are largely UK-related with a speech from the MPC's Saunders at 10:00BST on monetary policy "past, present and future". Note that the August meeting will be Saunders' last and he has consistently voted for 50bp rate hikes recently, in order to try to front-load rate hikes.
  • BTP-Bund 10-year spreads are around 5bp wider on the day, with political concerns continuing to linger. Other moves in peripheral spreads are unremarkable.
  • TY1 futures are down -0-5+ today at 118-15 with 10y UST yields up 2.7bp at 2.946% and 2y yields up 2.4bp at 3.149%.
  • Bund futures are down -0.87 today at 152.23 with 10y Bund yields up 5.3bp at 1.182% and Schatz yields up 4.3bp at 0.483%.
  • Gilt futures are down -0.22 today at 115.42 with 10y yields up 2.5bp at 2.113% and 2y yields up 2.2bp at 1.927%.
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