May 23, 2024 06:41 GMT
EGBS: ERZ4 Close To April 30 Low, ECB Negotiated Wages and PMIs Due This Morning
EGBS
Euribor futures are flat to -2.0 through the blues, with ERZ4 trading just above the April 30 low.
- Yesterday evening saw ECB Executive Board member Schnabel note that wage growth is “gradually slowing down”.
- Today’s Q1 negotiated wages release provides the next input on that front, though a significant deceleration from Q4’s 4.5% Y/Y is unlikely given already-released national data.
- See here for our reaction to yesterday’s German negotiated wages release.
- This morning, VP de Guindos offered little new to the rate path debate, favouring a 25bps rate cut at the June meeting and offering little guidance beyond that juncture.
- ECB-dated OIS contracts price 63bps of cuts through the remainder of 2024, close to hawkish extremes seen at the end of April.
- May flash PMIs are also due this morning, while ECB’s Villeroy is scheduled to speak this afternoon.
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Jun-24 | 3.678 | -23.2 |
| Jul-24 | 3.641 | -26.9 |
| Sep-24 | 3.478 | -43.2 |
| Oct-24 | 3.417 | -49.3 |
| Dec-24 | 3.282 | -62.8 |
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