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EGBS: Futures Bounce of Lows, Dovish ECB Repricing Extends

EGBS
EurozoneBulletGlobalFixed Income BulletsRegionMarkets

10-year Bund yields found resistance at 2.20%, helping futures bounce ~40 ticks off intraday lows to 134.57, now slightly higher on the day.

  • Similar price action observed in OAT and BTP futures.
  • Estoxx 50 futures were unable to push through last Thursday’s highs, but are still +1.1% higher today.  Brent crude futures also remain +2.0%, with the bid in both asset classes a function of previously-covered China stimulus measures overnight.
  • The short-end remains insulated by this morning’s dovish repricing in EUR STIRs, with ECB-dated OIS now showing a ~60% implied probability of a 25bp cut in October (vs 40% at yesterday’s close).
  • These moves, alongside smooth digestion of earlier supply, sees 2-year German yields 3bps lower today, with the curve twist steepening.
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10-year Bund yields found resistance at 2.20%, helping futures bounce ~40 ticks off intraday lows to 134.57, now slightly higher on the day.

  • Similar price action observed in OAT and BTP futures.
  • Estoxx 50 futures were unable to push through last Thursday’s highs, but are still +1.1% higher today.  Brent crude futures also remain +2.0%, with the bid in both asset classes a function of previously-covered China stimulus measures overnight.
  • The short-end remains insulated by this morning’s dovish repricing in EUR STIRs, with ECB-dated OIS now showing a ~60% implied probability of a 25bp cut in October (vs 40% at yesterday’s close).
  • These moves, alongside smooth digestion of earlier supply, sees 2-year German yields 3bps lower today, with the curve twist steepening.