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EGBs-GILTS CASH CLOSE: Core FI Gains Pared In Otherwise Strong Week

BONDS

European yields rose sharply Friday, paring gains made earlier in the week but still mostly ending the week lower.

  • After trending higher for most of the morning session, Bund and Gilt yields jumped in the afternoon as the highly anticipated US jobs report came in stronger than expected on both the unemployment rate and hourly earnings measures.
  • ECB and BoE cut pricing for 2024 was reduced, sharply in the case of the ECB's (135bp of 2024 reductions implied, vs 143bp Thursday).
  • The German curve closed bear flatter, with the UK's relatively flat. Periphery EGB spreads widened as ECB cut pricing was pared back.
  • On the week, spurred by dovish ECB commentary for the most part, 10Y Bund yields dropped 9bp, having dropped 19bp at one point. Gilt yields fell 10bp on the week, vs 20bp at the lows.
  • Next week's schedule is extraordinarily busy: in addition to the ECB and BoE decisions, we also get the Fed and US CPI.

Closing Yields / 10-Yr Periphery EGB Spreads To Germany

  • Germany: The 2-Yr yield is up 9.7bps at 2.693%, 5-Yr is up 9.7bps at 2.234%, 10-Yr is up 8.5bps at 2.276%, and 30-Yr is up 6.6bps at 2.468%.
  • UK: The 2-Yr yield is up 7.3bps at 4.59%, 5-Yr is up 8.1bps at 4.11%, 10-Yr is up 7.3bps at 4.041%, and 30-Yr is up 6.6bps at 4.526%.
  • Italian BTP spread up 5.1bps at 179.7bps / Spanish up 2.1bps at 102.4bps
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