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EGBs-GILTS CASH CLOSE: Early Inflation Relief Rally Fades


Core Europe FI strengthened Tuesday, with Bunds outperforming Gilts, and some bull steepening in both the German and UK curves.

  • The German short end rallied early on softer-than-expected German state and Spanish inflation data diminishing ECB hike expectations (50bp is back to being the base case for Dec's meeting, with 75% implied probability).
  • Gains partially reversed in the afternoon. There was a negative reaction to the German HICP print which didn't confirm the weakness in State CPI, with heavy US corporate supply also weighing.
  • Wednesday's focus will be the Eurozone Nov flash inflation print.

Closing Yields / 10-Yr Periphery EGB Spreads To Germany

  • Germany: The 2-Yr yield is down 8.7bps at 2.106%, 5-Yr is down 8.5bps at 1.925%, 10-Yr is down 7bps at 1.922%, and 30-Yr is down 7bps at 1.822%.
  • UK: The 2-Yr yield is down 3.4bps at 3.253%, 5-Yr is down 4.4bps at 3.224%, 10-Yr is down 2.6bps at 3.1%, and 30-Yr is down 0.4bps at 3.358%.
  • Italian BTP spread down 2.3bps at 189.9bps / Greek up 1bps at 224bps

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