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EGBs-GILTS CASH CLOSE: Gilts Lead Rout

BONDS

Gilts led a global core FI rout Tuesday, with UK yields rising 8-9bp across the curve.

  • The Gilt sell-off was not due to a single factor: partly in anticipation of Wednesday's CPI release, and partly on prelim May services PMI which slipped to a 2-month low but held hawkish details.
  • Terminal BoE pricing rose as much as 13bp to 5.13%, before fading.
  • Weakness in the German curve was relatively tame, with yields up 0-1bp. Like the UK's PMI report, Eurozone manufacturing came in weak, but services were probably too strong for the ECB's comfort.
  • Eurozone central bank speakers had little impact: BoE's Bailey had little new to say, while the largest mover was Monday's hawkish-leaning after hours comments by ECB's de Cos who said there was still a way to go on rate hikes.
  • Following Monday's strong rally led by Greece, periphery spreads were mixed/unchanged.
  • UK inflation leads Wednesday's docket, but we also get German IFO, Bund and Gilt supply, and appearances by Bailey and ECB's Lagarde.

Closing Yields / 10-Yr Periphery EGB Spreads To Germany

  • Germany: The 2-Yr yield is up 1.3bps at 2.822%, 5-Yr is up 0.3bps at 2.451%, 10-Yr is up 1bps at 2.469%, and 30-Yr is up 0.8bps at 2.642%.
  • UK: The 2-Yr yield is up 8.2bps at 4.135%, 5-Yr is up 8.8bps at 3.991%, 10-Yr is up 9.4bps at 4.158%, and 30-Yr is up 8.1bps at 4.533%.
  • Italian BTP spread down 0.3bps at 185.2bps / Greek down 0.4bps at 141.4bps

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