January 08, 2025 17:47 GMT
BONDS: EGBs-GILTS CASH CLOSE: Long-End UK Rout Continues
BONDS
Gilts led a long-end selloff in the European government bond space Wednesday.
- A combination of weaker global long-duration bonds and UK-specific structural issues saw Gilts sell off sharply for a second consecutive session: 10Y yields hit the highest since 2008, with 30Y at fresh post-1998 highs.
- Bunds weakened in sympathy, with the softness in global core FI exacerbated by solid US jobless claims data, as well as dollar gains on overnight reports that Pres-elect Trump would make an emergency tariff declaration.
- Heavy supply also weighed, including Gilt, Bund, and Italian issuance, with French/Spanish auctions anticipated Thursday.
- German Factory orders and retail sales missed versus consensus but this did not move markets.
- Both the UK and German curves bear steepened. Semi-core/periphery EGB spreads narrowed slightly, however.
- Thursday sees the aforementioned supply, plus multiple data points including UK BRC shop price index, DMP inflation expectations, and KPMPG/REC jobs report, along with German trade/regional CPI.
Closing Yields / 10-Yr EGB Spreads To Germany
- Germany: The 2-Yr yield is up 0.5bps at 2.201%, 5-Yr is up 2bps at 2.298%, 10-Yr is up 6.6bps at 2.549%, and 30-Yr is up 4.7bps at 2.764%.
- UK: The 2-Yr yield is up 4.5bps at 4.516%, 5-Yr is up 7.4bps at 4.523%, 10-Yr is up 11.3bps at 4.796%, and 30-Yr is up 10.9bps at 5.355%.
- Italian BTP spread down 1.7bps at 113bps / French OAT down 1.8bps at 80.5bps
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