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EGBs-GILTS CASH CLOSE: More Bear Flattening

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European curves bear flattened for a second consecutive session Thursday, as central bank cutting expectations continued to be pared.

  • The major market mover on the day was a surprisingly strong US April flash Services PMI reading, which saw Treasuries drop sharply, dragging Bunds and Gilts to session lows in the afternoon.
  • Earlier, firmer-than-expected German flash PMIs more than countered the impact of a softer-than-expected French services print. UK (and to a lesser extent, Eurozone) PMIs were softer than expected, while the price components appeared mildly dovish.
  • Eurozone Q1 negotiated wages accelerated versus Q4, but this brought limited reaction as it had been telegraphed by Wednesday's German data.
  • By the cash close, implied ECB 2024 cuts had been pared to 59bp, vs 64bp Wednesday - the BoE equivalent was 33bp, vs 37bp yesterday and 55bp prior to Wednesday's CPI print.
  • Bunds underperformed Gilts. Periphery EGB spreads were little changed.
  • UK retail sales and German GDP data feature first thing Friday.

Closing Yields / 10-Yr Periphery EGB Spreads To Germany

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European curves bear flattened for a second consecutive session Thursday, as central bank cutting expectations continued to be pared.

  • The major market mover on the day was a surprisingly strong US April flash Services PMI reading, which saw Treasuries drop sharply, dragging Bunds and Gilts to session lows in the afternoon.
  • Earlier, firmer-than-expected German flash PMIs more than countered the impact of a softer-than-expected French services print. UK (and to a lesser extent, Eurozone) PMIs were softer than expected, while the price components appeared mildly dovish.
  • Eurozone Q1 negotiated wages accelerated versus Q4, but this brought limited reaction as it had been telegraphed by Wednesday's German data.
  • By the cash close, implied ECB 2024 cuts had been pared to 59bp, vs 64bp Wednesday - the BoE equivalent was 33bp, vs 37bp yesterday and 55bp prior to Wednesday's CPI print.
  • Bunds underperformed Gilts. Periphery EGB spreads were little changed.
  • UK retail sales and German GDP data feature first thing Friday.

Closing Yields / 10-Yr Periphery EGB Spreads To Germany

Keep reading...Show less