May 23, 2024 16:43 GMT
EGBs-GILTS CASH CLOSE: More Bear Flattening
BONDS
European curves bear flattened for a second consecutive session Thursday, as central bank cutting expectations continued to be pared.
- The major market mover on the day was a surprisingly strong US April flash Services PMI reading, which saw Treasuries drop sharply, dragging Bunds and Gilts to session lows in the afternoon.
- Earlier, firmer-than-expected German flash PMIs more than countered the impact of a softer-than-expected French services print. UK (and to a lesser extent, Eurozone) PMIs were softer than expected, while the price components appeared mildly dovish.
- Eurozone Q1 negotiated wages accelerated versus Q4, but this brought limited reaction as it had been telegraphed by Wednesday's German data.
- By the cash close, implied ECB 2024 cuts had been pared to 59bp, vs 64bp Wednesday - the BoE equivalent was 33bp, vs 37bp yesterday and 55bp prior to Wednesday's CPI print.
- Bunds underperformed Gilts. Periphery EGB spreads were little changed.
- UK retail sales and German GDP data feature first thing Friday.
Closing Yields / 10-Yr Periphery EGB Spreads To Germany
- Germany: The 2-Yr yield is up 7.1bps at 3.079%, 5-Yr is up 7.4bps at 2.658%, 10-Yr is up 6.2bps at 2.596%, and 30-Yr is up 4.2bps at 2.711%.
- UK: The 2-Yr yield is up 4.9bps at 4.501%, 5-Yr is up 3.7bps at 4.173%, 10-Yr is up 2.7bps at 4.259%, and 30-Yr is up 1.3bps at 4.696%.
- Italian BTP spread up 0.1bps at 129.1bps / Spanish down 0.7bps at 75.7bps
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