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EGBs-GILTS CASH CLOSE: UK Curve Steepens As BoE Holds

BONDS

The Bank of England's decision to hold rates saw the UK curve steepen Thursday, with the German curve following suit.

  • After global bonds sold off overnight in the wake of the Fed's hawkish rate hold, a dovish tone was restored in early European trade with the SNB's unexpected hold and in-line hikes by the Riksbank and Norges Bank. The BoE's 5-4 decision to hold rates - which was only 45% priced in vs a 25bp hold - marked the peak for European core FI for the day.
  • After selling off in the afternoon, UK and German yields fell back and finished off session highs.
  • Helping the recovery were multiple comments by ECB participants across the hawk-dove spectrum pointing to prospects of an extended hold including Stournaras, Wunsch, and Knot.
  • The UK curve finished sharply bear steeper with Germany's modestly twist steepening.
  • Periphery EGB spreads widened, led by Italy, amid a broader risk-off move that accelerated in the afternoon as equities dropped and curves re-steepened.
  • Friday sees UK retail sales data and September flash PMIs.

Closing Yields / 10-Yr Periphery EGB Spreads To Germany

  • Germany: The 2-Yr yield is down 0.3bps at 3.257%, 5-Yr is up 2.2bps at 2.756%, 10-Yr is up 3.5bps at 2.737%, and 30-Yr is up 2.8bps at 2.87%.
  • UK: The 2-Yr yield is up 2.5bps at 4.873%, 5-Yr is up 3.3bps at 4.426%, 10-Yr is up 9bps at 4.305%, and 30-Yr is up 7.7bps at 4.709%
  • .Italian BTP spread up 5.5bps at 180.4bps / Greek up 4.6bps at 142bps

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