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EGBs-GILTS CASH CLOSE: Upside German Inflation Surprise Sets Bearish Tone

BONDS

Strong German inflation data and a rebound in equities fuelled a core EGB sell-off Thursday, with periphery EGBs also weakening.

  • German CPI came in above expectations, pushing Bund yields to session highs, though Spain's missed.
  • Gilts outperformed, with direction mainly determined by EGBs and Tsys.
  • Periphery spread widening continued: Italy 10Y yields hit highs of 2.743% intersession (+17bp) - highest since Mar 2020 with Bund spread above 184bp, a fresh post-Jun 2020 high; but settled down by day's end.
  • Plenty of data yet to come Friday, including French and Italian inflation.

Closing Yields / 10-Yr Periphery EGB Spreads To Germany

  • Germany: The 2-Yr yield is up 9.8bps at 0.198%, 5-Yr is up 10.8bps at 0.637%, 10-Yr is up 9.9bps at 0.9%, and 30-Yr is up 7.9bps at 1.053%.
  • UK: The 2-Yr yield is up 5.3bps at 1.542%, 5-Yr is up 5.2bps at 1.627%, 10-Yr is up 6.5bps at 1.877%, and 30-Yr is up 7.3bps at 2.01%.
  • Italian BTP spread up 4bps at 181.2bps / Greek up 6.4bps at 229.8bps
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