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EGBS: Little Changed As Markets Await Fresh Macro Cues

EGBS

Major EGB futures are little changed today, with impending 10-year Bund supply likely capping rallies in the run-up to the 1030BST bidding deadline. The broader macro calendar is very light until the US BLS payrolls revisions at 1500BST/1600CET, with FOMC minutes due at 1900BST.

  • The technical set-up in Bunds remains bullish, though initial resistances at the Aug 14 (135.17) and Aug 6 (135.59) remain intact. The 20-day EMA at 134.02 provides the first support.
  • The German cash curve has lightly twist steepened, but 2s10s remains well off the steepest levels of early August (currently -18.0bps vs the YTD closing steep of -13.4bps).
  • 10-year peripheral spreads to Bunds are little changed today, with the 10-year BTP/Bund spread at 138bps. The stabilisation of global equity markets following the late-July/early-August volatility has helped spreads narrow from almost 150bps earlier this month. 
  • Bank of Italy Governor Panetta speaks on Italian debt sustainability and economic development at 1200BST.
  • Regional focus remains on tomorrow’s August flash PMIs and Q2 negotiated wages.
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