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EGBS: Off UK CPI-Inspired Lows

EGBS

Core/semi-core EGBs are off post-UK CPI lows, but the recovery will have been limited by today’s sovereign supply calendar.

  • UK CPI surprised to the upside on core and headline measures, and the subsequent hawkish repricing in UK assets fed through to EGBs.
  • Bunds are -35 ticks at 130.55, off intraday lows of 130.49.
  • A breach of the key short-term support at 130.24 would be a bearish development from a technical perspective.  
  • The >1% pullback in oil prices will have factored into the move away from session lows.
  • Today’s sovereign supply calendar features conventional auctions from Germany and Greece, alongside EUR denominated syndications from Austria (15-year RAGB), France (20-year OATei) and Portugal (30-year PGB). MNI estimates a total size of between E9.5-13.5bln for those three transactions.
  • 10-year peripheral spreads to Bunds are a touch wider this morning, with European equities trading weaker.
  • The remainder of today’s regional calendar is light, with focus on tomorrow’s May flash PMIs and Q1 ECB negotiated wages data.
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