EIA Data Preview: Small Crude Draw Expected

EIA Oil Inventory Preview: The EIA weekly petroleum status report will be released at 10:30 EDT (15:30 BST) today

• Crude inventories are expected to draw by -0.8mbbls for the week ending 29th July according to a survey. The crude draw last week was driven by record exports and low imports despite an increase in production. Exports are expected to stay strong with overseas demand high, especially from Europe with the wide WTI-Brent spread.
• Distillate and gasoline stocks fell further below normal levels last week. Exports dipped but remained high due to large volumes heading to Europe and Latin America. High export demand is likely to remain with US volumes replacing missing Russian barrels. A survey suggests gasoline inventories are expected to draw by -1.0mbbls and distillates to build by +0.74kbbls.
• Gasoline and distillate implied demand saw a very slight recovery last week but has not had the usual summer boost due to the high pump prices. Any impact from a pull-back in fuel pump prices has not yet been seen. US gasoline pump prices have fallen 16% from an all-time high in mid-June.
• Refinery utilization has fallen back from a peak of 95% to the lowest since May at 92.2% last week. Some units were taken offline in the Gulf Coast region contributing to the fall. The impact of the Port Arthur FCC unit outage last weekend may not be seen until data released next week. Margins have stabilised over the last couple of weeks after falling back from a peak in early June. The US 321 crack is bouncing around the 40$/bbl level having started the year just over 19$/bbl and peaked at nearly 61$/bbl in June.
• The API data released last night showed a build in crude of +2.2mbbls including a build at Cushing of +0.65mbbls and draws in both gasoline and distillates of -0.2mbbl and -0.35mbbl respectively.