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EIA Forecast High US Refinery Utilisation Despite Winter Outages

REFINING

The winter storm in the US in late December brought below-freezing temperatures and disrupted refineries in the Midwest, the East Coast, and the Gulf Coast.

  • The severe cold caused a temporary reduction in refinery runs as well as equipment damage at several refineries. Suncor’s Commerce City refinery in Colorado has indicated operations will not resume until late Q1 2023.
  • US average refinery utilisation in the week to 30 Dec fell to the lowest since March 2021 at 79.6% but has been slowly recovering since.
  • The latest EIA STEO forecasts refinery utilisation will average 87.0% in Jan 2023 down from November’s average of 93.8%.
  • EIA estimate annual average utilisation of 91.7% in 2022 compared to 86.6% in 2021. They forecast refinery utilisation will be 91.5% in 2023 and 91.0% in 2024.

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