AMERICAS OIL: EIA forecasts Alaska crude oil production will grow in 2026

EIA forecasts Alaska crude oil production will grow in 2026 for the first time since 2017

• In the March 2025 Short-Term Energy Outlook, EIA forecast crude oil production in Alaska will increase by 16,000 b/d in 2026 to 438,000 b/d after remaining relatively flat in 2025.
• Two new oil developments in Alaska, the Nuna and Pikka projects, are expected to raise crude oil production in the state after decades of decline, also the first increase since 2017 and the largest since 2002.
• Average annual crude oil production in Alaska peaked at 2.0 mb/d in 1988, and production has since fallen largely because of the production decline of mature oil fields, limited lease availability, and high exploration and production costs.
• ConocoPhillips produced first oil from the Nuna project in December 2024.
• EIA forecast annual crude oil production in Alaska to average 422,000 b/d in 2025, an annual increase of 1,000 b/d, compared with the previous five-year (2020–24) average annual decline of 9,000 b/d.
• The decline in existing well production is offset by the added production from the Nuna project on the North Slope. ConocoPhillips expects the Nuna project’s 29 wells will produce a combined 20,000 b/d of oil at its peak.
• The Pikka development project on the North Slope is one of the most significant oil developments in Alaska in recent years. At the project’s peak, the companies plan to produce 80,000 b/d from 45 wells.
• The increased crude oil production will go to supply refineries in Alaska, the Pacific Northwest, and California.