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MNI BCB Review – Mar 2025: Hiking Pace To Slow In May

The Copom continued its tightening cycle with another 100bp hike of the Selic rate to 14.25%, in line with the guidance
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Executive Summary

  • The Copom continued its tightening cycle with another 100bp hike of the Selic rate to 14.25%, in line with the forward guidance.
  • The decision was unanimous as the committee struck a less hawkish tone, adjusting its guidance to signal a smaller hike at the next meeting in May. Beyond May, the guidance remained open-ended, with the degree of tightening dependant on the incoming data.
  • Analysts continue to expect the tightening cycle to end in the second quarter, with the terminal Selic rate in a 15-15.50% range.
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Executive Summary

  • The Copom continued its tightening cycle with another 100bp hike of the Selic rate to 14.25%, in line with the forward guidance.
  • The decision was unanimous as the committee struck a less hawkish tone, adjusting its guidance to signal a smaller hike at the next meeting in May. Beyond May, the guidance remained open-ended, with the degree of tightening dependant on the incoming data.
  • Analysts continue to expect the tightening cycle to end in the second quarter, with the terminal Selic rate in a 15-15.50% range.