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EIA Forecasts US Natgas Production Flat Until End-2024

NATURAL GAS

EIA forecasts natural gas production to average around 104bcf/d through the end of 2024, compare with 103bcf/d in 2Q23. Production has been supported by growth in the Permian Basin despite a decline in natgas prices according to the EIA STEO report.

  • Dry natural gas production averaged more than 102bcf/d in the first half of this year, which is a 6Bcf/d increase compared with the same period in 2022.
  • Production has remained at relatively high levels throughout 2023 despite a decline in US natural gas prices. EIA forecasts dry natural gas production will start to rise in the fourth quarter of 2024 as new pipeline capacity comes online and demand for LNG feed gas increases as developers expect two new facilities to come online at the end of 2024.
  • The US benchmark Henry Hub spot price averaged $2.41/MMBtu in 1H23, compared with an annual average of $6.42/MMBtu in 2022.
  • The Permian Basin has driven the growth in US natural gas production in 2023. Most of the natural gas produced from the Permian Basin is associated natural gas produced from oil wells. EIA expect increased oil drilling activity to continue to drive increased natural gas production in the Permian Basin, although these increases will be offset by some small production declines in other large producing regions.

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