EIA Oil Inventory Preview: Draw in Crude and Products Expected

EIA Oil Inventory Preview: The EIA weekly petroleum status report will be released at 10:30 ET (15:30 BST) today.

• Crude inventories are expected to draw by -0.477mbbls for the week ending 20 October according to a Bloomberg survey. Crude stocks last week showed a larger than expected draw driven by a bounce in exports back over 5mbbls after the decline the previous week. Producers are exporting crude amid US refinery turnarounds and with little incentive of keep stores due to strong backwardation. Domestic production remained unchanged last week holding at record levels of 13.2mbpd.
• Cushing stocks fell again last week to the lowest since October 2014 at 21.01mbbls with levels approaching operational minimum.
• US refinery utilization unexpectedly rose slightly last week to 86.1% amid multiple refinery turnarounds but could fall back this week a power interruption at Galveston Bay refinery last week. Refinery utilization is this week expected to rise by 0.73% according to Bloomberg.
• Total US gasoline stocks are expected to show a draw of -0.722mbbls and distillates a draw of -1.029mbbls according to a Bloomberg survey. Distillates last week drew with a slight drop in production and imports and recovery in demand offsetting a drop in exports. Gasoline inventories also showed a draw with a recovery in demand despite lower exports, higher imports and an increase in production. European gasoline arrivals in the US were unchanged on the week to 19 Oct at the four week low of 174kb/d, according to bills of lading and ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. So far this month shipments have averaged 200kb/d compared to 240kb/d in Oct 2022 and the year to date average of 290kb/d.
• Four week average demand across the main three refined products of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel showed a recovery in data last week with the largest weekly increase since June 2022. The current level however remains well below seasonal normal but with distillates demand holding just below the five year average. Gasoline implied demand has seen a slight recovery in recent weeks although fell 1.8% in the week to 21 Oct to 8.7mb/d and 0.2% below the four-week average according to GasBuddy.
• The API data released last night showed a crude draw of -2.67mbbls with built of +0.51mbbls at Cushing. Gasoline inventories showed a draw of -4.17mbbls and distillates a draw of 2.31mbbls.