EIA Oil Stocks Preview: Small Crude and Product Draws Expected

EIA Oil Inventory Preview: The EIA weekly petroleum status report will be released at 10:30 ET (15:30 BST) today.

• Crude inventories are expected to draw by -0.60mbbls for the week ending 22 Sep according to a Bloomberg survey. Last week crude inventories showed a draw largely in line with expectation driven by a recovery in exports back above 5mbpd, lower imports and despite a drop in refinery runs. Stocks at Cushing are expected to fall again this week with AlphaBBL expecting a draw of -1.2mbbls with stocks already the lowest since July 2022 and approaching the minimum operation levels for the facility. The declining stocks levels have helped support the front month WTI-Brent up to the highest since early May at nearly -3.2$/bbl.
• Refinery utilisation is limited by the seasonal maintenance works with a drop last week on the east coast due to the start of Delta’s Monroe Energy maintenance and in the Midwest due to BP Whiting works. US refinery utilisation is expected to decline again by -0.46% to 91.4% which would be the lowest since June.
• Diesel and gasoline stocks remain low after unexpected draws last week. Total US gasoline stocks are expected to show a small draw of -0.14mbbls and distillates a small draw of -0.64mbbls according to a Bloomberg survey. Gasoline production last week increased but was offset by lower imports and higher exports. Diesel production fell on the week and added to a drop in imports. European gasoline imports into the US however tripled on the week to 21 Sep to 339kb/d and the highest since August according to Bloomberg. New York diesel exports have stepped up since Russia banned fuel exports last week with three cargoes carrying more than a combined 1mbbls. New York Harbour diesel exports average 41kbpd so far this month, the highest monthly rate since June 2020.
• Both distillates and gasoline implied demand gained last week with the four week distillates demand rising above the seasonal five year average having held near the low in previous weeks. Demand saw an increase to the highest since late May reflecting a recovery in truck freight as well as fuel consumption for harvesting crops according to Bloomberg. Four week gasoline average demand however fell in line with the seasonal trend at the end of the summer driving season. US gasoline demand rose 2.4% this week to 8.68mbpd but was 0.6% below the four week moving average according to GasBuddy data.
• The API data released last night showed a crude build of +1.6mbbls with another draw of -0.8mbbls at Cushing. Gasoline inventories were hardly changed with a draw of just -0.1mbbls and distillates showed a draw of -1.7mbbls.