EIA Oil Stocks Preview: Small Crude Build Expected

EIA Oil Inventory Preview: The EIA weekly petroleum status report will be released at 10:30 EDT (15:30 BST) today

• Crude inventories are expected to build by +0.46mbbls for the week ending 21st October according to a survey, following a draw of -1.725mbbls last week. A rebound in crude exports last week contributed to the draw in crude stocks and the WTI-Brent spread suggests exports should once again stay high. The WTI-Brent spread fell in the week to Oct 21 from around -7$/bbl to -8.5$/bbl. Imports have been near the low end of the five-year average for much of the year and US production has been holding steady since reaching 12mbpd in mid-June.
• Refinery utilisation has gradually fallen from 93.6% in mid-September to 89.5% due to high refinery outages from seasonal maintenance. A survey suggests refinery utilization is expected to increase slightly by 0.2% to 89.7%.
• Distillate product supplied showed an unexpected increase to the highest seasonal level since 2007 last week. The increase showed a recovery from below 2020 levels just four weeks ago. The data will be closely watched for signs of an impact of economic concerns on the implied demand. Diesel crack spreads have been drifting lower over the last week despite the tight supplies and US stock levels still nearly 23% below normal. Diesel exports fell last week but tight supplies in Europe should still encourage strong exports this week.
• Gasoline cracks have rallied since the middle of the month on tight supplies especially in the New York Harbor region. Gasoline four-week demand showed a marginal increase last week but remains well below normal.
• The API data released last night showed a build in crude stocks of 4.52mbbls and a build at Cushing of +0.74mbbls. Distillate inventories reported a build of 0.64mbbls.