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EIA Revise 2023 Henry Hub Forecast Lower to 3.40$/MMBtu

NATGAS

EIA revised down its forecast for US Henry Hub gas prices for this year after significantly warmer-than-normal weather and less-than-normal consumption in January pushed inventories above the five-year average according to the February short-term energy outlook released yesterday.

  • The US Henry Hub gas prices is forecast to average 3.40$/MMBtu in 2023, down from previous estimates of 4.90$/MMBtu and down almost 50% from last year.
  • Forecasts suggest an average price of 4.04$/MMBtu for 2024 down from the previous forecast of 4.80$/MMBtu.
  • They expect prices to remain very volatile. Extreme weather events and production freeze-offs could still potentially cause price spikes at both the Henry Hub and in regional markets.
  • A new record dry natural gas production in the US is estimated at 100.2 Bcf/d in January and production is expected to average between 100 Bcf/d and 101 Bcf/d in 2023.
  • Natural gas demand is expected to be lower in 2023 due to more renewable electric generation and a decrease in industrial sector demand from a drop in manufacturing activity.


Source: EIA

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