EIA US Oil Stocks Preview: Crude Build and Products Draw Expected

EIA Oil Inventory Preview: The EIA weekly petroleum status report will be released at 10:30 ET (14:30 GMT) today.

• Crude inventories are expected to build by just +0.42mbbls for the week ending 10th March according to a Bloomberg survey. US crude stocks fell last week due to a small increase in refinery runs, a drop in production and a big reduction in the unaccounted oil adjustment. Inventories drew despite a big drop in crude exports from the record levels seen the previous week. Crude exports are likely to stay strong with tanker tracking suggesting record imports into Europe from the US Gulf Coast in March. However, export pressures could ease slightly due to a closing of the WTI-Brent spread from around -6.5$/bbl at the start of the month to -5.85$/bbl at the end of last week. Cushing stocks last week fell for the first time this year and AlphaBBL forecast another decline with a draw of -1.1mbbls.
• Refinery utilisation showed a small rise last week but levels are expected to remain low with high outages due to the US maintenance season expected until mid-April. Refinery utilisation is forecast to increase by +0.36% to 86.4% but still well below levels from late last year around 92% or higher.
• Gasoline stocks are expected to show a draw of -1.4mbbls and distillates a draw of -1.26mbbls according to a Bloomberg survey. Gasoline margins have held relatively steady this week with a pause in the recent recovery in gasoline demand. The weekly EIA data showed a slight decline in demand last week although the four-week average and GasBuddy data remain relatively unchanged. Despite the decline in gasoline stocks last week, inventories in the central Atlantic region rose to their highest since Jul 2021. US gasoline supplies were supported last week with an increase in shipments from Europe after a four week decline according to vessel tracking data.
• US distillate stocks have increased to just 8.3% below normal due to ongoing weak implied demand which has limited margin gains. Spreads have found some support this week with potential for tighter global supplies due to a reduction in Asian diesel exports and with ongoing uncertainty over future Russian supplies.
• The API data released last night showed a build in crude stocks of +1.16mbbls and a -0.95mbbls draw at Cushing. Product inventories declined with gasoline showing a big draw of -4.59mbbls and distillates a draw of -2.89bbls.