EIA US Oil Stocks Preview: Crude Draw Expected

EIA Oil Inventory Preview: The EIA weekly petroleum status report will be released at 10:30 ET (15:30 BST) today.

• Crude inventories are expected to draw by 1.92mbbls for the week ending May 17, according to a Bloomberg survey. Crude stocks drew last week with an increase in refinery runs - offsetting declines in both imports and exports. US shipments to Europe were expected to rise by a third from April to at least 2.1mb/d in the first 23 days of this month with the return of European refineries from seasonal maintenance. Crude production was once again unchanged at 13.1mbpd.
• Refinery utilisation increased more than expected by 1.9% last week - back above 90% for the first time since early January. Overall US refinery utilisation is this week expected to rise again by 0.63% w/w according to a Bloomberg survey. Offline capacity at U.S. oil refiners is expected to fall to 122kbpd in the week ending May 24 from 530kbpd the previous week and 800kbpd in the week to May 10, according to IIR Energy cited by Reuters. Around 2mbpd of US refining capacity was subjected to destructive winds May 16 as a major storm passed through Houston, but reported damage was minimal.
• Total US gasoline stocks are expected to draw by 1.16mbbl and distillates to draw by 0.30mbbl, according to a Bloomberg survey. Gasoline stocks last week showed a small draw counter to expectation of a small build with a slight increase in implied weekly demand and higher exports to offset higher production. Four-week implied demand was marginally higher but continues to disappoint and is holding below the seasonal normal levels. The Memorial Day holiday on May 27 is considered the start to the peak summer driving season. The trend for prompt European gasoline towards the North American market looks set to continue with volumes directed towards PADD 1 rising this month according to Vortexa.
• Distillates stocks were almost unchanged in data last week with a drop in exports set against a rise in implied demand. Four-week implied demand has extended the recent recovery from a low on April 19 but remains below all recent years except for 2020.
• The API data released last night showed a crude build of 2.5mbbl with a build of 1.8mbbl at Cushing. Gasoline inventories showed a build of 2.1mbbl and distillates stocks a draw of 0.3mbbl.