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EIA US Stocks Preview: Crude to Build with Low Refinery Runs

OIL

EIA Oil Inventory Preview: The EIA weekly petroleum status report will be released at 11:00 ET (16:00 GMT) today.

  • Crude inventories are expected to build by 1.38mbbls for the week ending 17th February according to a Bloomberg survey - following on from the big build last week. Crude inventories were at the top of the seasonal five-year range due to lower refinery runs and despite a drop in imports. Exports should remain strong with the WTI-Brent spread hovering around -6.5$/bbl during the week with ongoing strong demand from Europe. Production levels remain firm helping Cushing inventories to recover to the highest since Jun 2021. AlphaBBL data is suggesting a Cushing build of +0.47mbbls this week.
  • Refinery utilisation is expected to remain unchanged after the big drop of -1.4% last week. The strong refinery maintenance season is expected to keep utilisation at 86.5%. US refinery maintenance will stay well above the five-year average in the next couple of months as the sector catches up after facilities maximised runs last year to capitalise on inflated margins.
  • Gasoline stocks are expected to show a build of +0.24mbbls and distillates a draw of -0.91mbbls according to a Bloomberg survey. The inventory data last week showed US distillates stocks still 15% below normal and gasoline stocks just under 5% below. Gasoline stocks were last week boosted by lower exports, but inventory gains may be limited this week by a drop in US gasoline imports from Europe according to ship tracking data. Weak US demand has continued to pressure crack spreads lower in recent weeks and has resulted in gasoline cargo diversions away from the US towards fuel storage in the Caribbean. The four-week distillate and gasoline implied demand is still low with distillates last week falling back below the five-year range.
  • The API data released last night showed a big build in crude stocks of +9.9mbbls with a +0.48mbbls build at Cushing. Product inventories also increased with gasoline showing an increase of +0.89mbbls and distillates increased by +1.37bbls.
Energy BulletsCommodities
Energy BulletsCommodities

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