Election Analyst Views

The French legislative election of 30 June-7 July delivered shocks to the country’s political system, opinion pollsters, and financial markets. In a result viewed by MNI as the second-most-likely outcome, but by opinion polls as a minor prospect, the leftist New Popular Front (NFP) secured a plurality of seats in the National Assembly.

• The right-wing nationalist Rassemblement National (National Rally, RN) secured its best-ever result but still fell short of expectations that had risen sky-high following a strong showing in the first round. Instead, the ’republican front’ held strong, with leftist and centrist candidates standing down in favour of one another to avoid splitting the anti-RN vote.
• This resulted in the RN coming in third place behind the NFP and the centrist Ensemble bloc aligned with President Emmaneul Macron. France now faces a period of negotiations between parliamentary groups, and the prospect of sustained political paralysis should the three evenly-sized but ideologically opposed blocs prove unable to reach agreement.
• With the European Commission set to launch an Excessive Deficit Procedure against France, there is increased focus on the implications of the election on the country’s fiscal outlook. MNI’s Policy team has the latest on the situation from Brussels, see ‘MNI: EU Already Looking At Flexibility For France-Officials’, 12 July 0905BST’.

MNIPOLITICALRISK-FranceElectionAnalystViews.pdf