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Election Bluffing Games In Focus, GDP Data On Tap

POLAND
  • Prime Minister Donald Tusk toyed the idea of calling a snap election if President Andrzej Duda tries to block his budget by sending it to the Constitutional Tribunal. His comments represented an attempt to reaffirm dominance by calling the bluff of Law and Justice (PiS) leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski, who recently said an early election would be in order. Opinion polls suggest that if parliament was dissolved today, the ruling coalition would likely return to parliament with a stronger majority. A hypothetical motion to shorten parliament's term would need to be backed by 2/3 of MPs, which would have to include some PiS lawmakers, who would face a choice between voting in favour of Tusk's government and triggering an unwanted snap election.
  • Tusk announced that his Civic Coalition (KO) will contest the April 7 local elections alone, despite earlier reports of advanced talks on a possible pact with the New Left. Onet circulated a source piece suggesting that KO leader ended the negotiations after reassessing the potential costs and benefits of an alliance. The PM reportedly concluded that the pact would mostly benefit his national coalition partners, as the New Left could secure more seats than if running alone, while disappointed KO supporters would defect to the centre-right Third Way.
  • Statistics Poland will release GDP data for 2023 at 09:00GMT/10:00CET. Economic growth may have slowed to +0.5% Y/Y from +5.1% in 2022 amid tight monetary policy and unfavourable external backdrop.
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