Election Date Still Uncertain As Summer Speculation Swirls

Speculation surrounding the potential date of the next general election continues to swirl amid the vacuum of an actual set date. A broad view has October/November as the most likely time for an election, not too soon that the incumbent centre-right Conservatives do not have the time to fashion an (unlikely) turnaround in the polls, but not too far away that the election risks bleeding into the Christmas holiday period.

• However, there has been some media speculation that the election could be brought forwardto the summer in order to stave off any potential confidence vote against PM Rishi Sunak from within the Conservatives. Amid record numbers of immigrants crossing the Channel in Q124 and expectations for heavy losses in the 2 May local elections in England, Sunak could well find himself challenged for the leadership later in May unless he signals an early election.
• Nevertheless, broader expectations remain for October/November. Earlier in March Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt hinted at an October election, while Secretary of State for Levelling Up Michael Gove, speaking to a podcast hosted by former Chancellor George Osborne and former Shadow Chancellor Ed Balls,said that while he did not have any inside info, that “I think November the 14th or the 21st..."
• Political betting markets continue to have Q324 as the most likely window for an election, although there has been a small jump in bettors opting for Q224. Bettors assign a 78.7% implied probability to a Q324 election, with Q224 on 10.6%, up from 4.2% on 27 March. Q324 is at a 9.1% implied probability from 2.3% on 12 March.

Source: Smarkets