Election Race Too Close To Call As Crime Dominates Voter Concerns

Opinion polling ahead of the 11 September general election shows the race between PM Magdalena Andersson's centre-left grouping of parties and the opposition centre-right bloc as too close to call.

• The parties either in gov't (Andersson's centre-left Social Democrats) or that support the gov't in a confidence and supply arrangement (socialist Left Party, environmentalist Greens, agrarian Centre Party) polling around the same level as those in the opposition grouping (centre-right Moderates, nationalist Sweden Democrats, libertarian Liberals, conservative Christian Democrats).

Source: Sifo, Novus, Demoskop, Sentio, Ipsos, Infostat, SKOP, MNI. N.b. Anderson Gov't and Supporters-Social Democrats, Greens, Centre, Left. Opposition-Moderates, Sweden Democrats, Liberals, Christian Democrats

• Should the post-election groupings mirror those of the previous 2018 election (where the Centre Party joined with the Moderates, Liberals, and Christian Democrats in 'The Alliance', leaving the Social Democrats, Left, and Greens as the Red-Greens, and the Sweden Democrats on their own), then the left-leaning group would have a sizable advantage according to polls (see chart below).

Source: Sifo, Novus, Demoskop, Sentio, Ipsos, Infostat, SKOP, MNI. N.b. Red-Greens-Social Democrats, Greens, Left. Alliance-Moderates, Centre, Liberals, Christian Democrats

• Crime and gang violence is one of the dominant issues of the campaign, with 41% of respondents naming it as the biggest worry according to a 2022 study by Gothenburg University's Society, Opinion and Media Institute. Sweden Democrats have retained support by arguing for deportations for foreign-born criminals and gang members.
• No matter the election winner, both sides remain committed to Sweden's NATO accession process. On the economic front, Moderate leader Ulf Kristersson has talked up tax cuts to ease inflationary pressures on households.