Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Turnout in the Israeli general election taking place today was recorded at 38.9% at 1400 local time, the highest turnout at that point in election day since 1999. The election remains too close to call, and despite concerns about voter fatigue - this being the fifth election in four years - it appears these are unfounded. Former PM Benjamin Netanyahu has talked up high turnout coming from left-wing areas, but this could be an attempt to boost his own bloc's turnout rather than an accurate reflection of turnout on the ground.
- Polls ahead of the election showed the group of right-wing and Haredi parties supportive of Netanyahu (Likud, Shas, United Torah Judaisim, Religious Zionist Party-Otzma Yehudit) winning between 59 and 62 seats. In the 120-member Knesset a seat total of 61 or over gives a coalition a majority.
- The broad anti-Netanyahu alliance of parties led by PM Yair Lapid (Yesh Atid, National Unity Party, Ra'am, Meretz, Labor, Yisrael Beiteinu) is polling between 54 and 58 seats.
- As such, barring a major error in polling or a split in the alliances post-election, it appears that the Lapid-led gov't will not return to power. Ahead of the election Lapid vowed he would not bring the far-left Arab interest Hadash-Ta'al party, the only non-aligned party in the Knesset, into gov't.
- If neither the pro- nor anti-Netanyahu blocs win a majority it would likely mean another lengthy period of political paralysis and potential another snap election.
- Polls close at 2200 local time (1600ET, 2000GMT, 2100CET). Preliminary results will come through in the following hours, with full results to be confirmed in the coming days.
Chart 1. Israeli General Election Opinion Polling, By Bloc, % and 6-Poll Moving Average
Source: Kantar, Midgam, Camil Fuchs, Panels Politics, Direct Polls, Maagar Mochot, Smith, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.