Elections May Result In Change Of Government

Poland’s ruling Law and Justice Party (PiS) achieved the highest share of the votes at 36.8% according to an Ipsos exit poll but that is unlikely to be enough for them to form another government. They have been in power since 2015. If the opposition pro-EU Civic Coalition led by Donald Tusk, former PM and President of the European Council, can form a coalition with smaller parties then there would be a change of government. His party is on track to win 31.6%.

• The Polish President Duda has said that Law and Justice will be given the first chance to form a government as they are the largest party and that follows the constitution and tradition. It is likely to win 200 seats (down 35) and its partner right-wing Confederation 12, making it unlikely they’ll be able to form a government. Civic Coalition and two other opposition parties are set to have 248 seats (up 35) out of 460 in the lower house. The appointed PM will need to win a confidence vote.
• The situation will remain uncertain until final results which are expected on Tuesday morning local time. And even after that a new government may not be in place until the end of the year.
• Civic Coalition plans to work with the EU to obtain EUR 36bn of pandemic recovery help that has been blocked due to PiS changes to the judiciary.
• Commentators are suggesting that voter turnout was around 73%, exceeding the share who voted in the 1989 elections to remove the communist regime. The October 15 elections have been be seen by many as the most significant in many years.