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Elevated Oil Price Continues to Shape Global Capital Market Returns

  • With global recession concerns and tightening monetary policy restricting risk appetite across developed markets, some of the largest IPOs launched within the past 12 months - particularly in the US - now trade underwater.
  • This pattern is repeated across a number of territories, with just 7 of the 29 countries surveyed generating positive local currency returns for IPOs launched within the past 12 months. On weighted average terms, only companies listing in Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, the UAE and South Korea have generated local currency returns in excess of 1% over that period:

  • Adjusting returns for FX fluctuations erase much of the outperformance in a number of territories including Turkey and South Korea, leaving a clear common theme - offerings with a heavy concentration in energy and utility names continue to generate the loftiest returns in this part of the cycle:

  • This suggests that absent the sharp oil rally across 2022, the distribution of returns across sectors and geographies would have taken a very different shape, and animal spirits across global capital markets could be on an even poorer footing.

Source: MNI/Bloomberg

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