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Elo/Auchan (ELOFR; NR, BB+ Stable) 1H Results

CONSUMER STAPLES

Co has ordered its slides so it goes through its property segment in detail first (2% of revenues). It's normally given a few slides right before the appendix. The shift summarises what's happening on the bottom line. The results aren't great but French newspapers and those invited to the earnings call have already started to price this in (€28s -2pts/+70bps). We think investors should be careful even at these levels and price based on RV against retail RE curves. Retailing arm is not profitable and its dragging on cash/BS. The solution to turn that may take time (and includes turning around acquired casino stores). While it works on that it's losing market share in its core (50%) France segment to competitors who are managing to price aggressive while holding onto margins (based on Carrefour colour and YTD market share data).


Debt looks large but it is not wrong in splitting it out as 1.22x LTM in Retail and a LVR of 39.6% on property; it is the approach S&P takes and has allowed it to stay on BB+ ratings. It has €1b due next year, if it decides to refi (instead using its €7b in properties to paydown) then it will face a ~3x in interest costs...or said alternatively on the 25s a jump from €16.5m/yr to ~€49m/yr in interest payments. Interest cost is currently €107m; even ignoring the loss making retail arm, real-estate EBIT is only €76.

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Co has ordered its slides so it goes through its property segment in detail first (2% of revenues). It's normally given a few slides right before the appendix. The shift summarises what's happening on the bottom line. The results aren't great but French newspapers and those invited to the earnings call have already started to price this in (€28s -2pts/+70bps). We think investors should be careful even at these levels and price based on RV against retail RE curves. Retailing arm is not profitable and its dragging on cash/BS. The solution to turn that may take time (and includes turning around acquired casino stores). While it works on that it's losing market share in its core (50%) France segment to competitors who are managing to price aggressive while holding onto margins (based on Carrefour colour and YTD market share data).


Debt looks large but it is not wrong in splitting it out as 1.22x LTM in Retail and a LVR of 39.6% on property; it is the approach S&P takes and has allowed it to stay on BB+ ratings. It has €1b due next year, if it decides to refi (instead using its €7b in properties to paydown) then it will face a ~3x in interest costs...or said alternatively on the 25s a jump from €16.5m/yr to ~€49m/yr in interest payments. Interest cost is currently €107m; even ignoring the loss making retail arm, real-estate EBIT is only €76.

Keep reading...Show less