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EM Market Analysis: “Fortress Russia” Repels ST Impact of Sanctions, But Longer-Term Risks Remain

Russia Central Bank
Russia Central Bank

Executive Summary:

  • Russia’s impressive war chest of sanctions dampers, earning it the nickname “Fortress Russia,” has thus far, shielded it from a notable impact from Western sanctions, but the impact of economic isolation will be felt more aggressively on a longer time scale
  • Sanctions from the West have targeted banks, defense companies, tech exports, international fundraising, Nord Stream 2, duma & state officials and Oligarchs, but have fallen just short of SWIFT as this would cause damage to EU economies as well.
  • Isolationism in in a globalised system, alongside funding difficulties and socio-political risks from a protracted insurgency, pose risks to Russia over the longer-term. However, Russia's pivot to China may soften the blow.

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Russia Long-Term Risks.pdf

MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 |
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 |

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