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EM PMIs Outshine DM As China Reopens

GLOBAL

Despite recession talk mounting, June's Global PMIs showed decent momentum in the world economy, with a divergence in emerging and developed markets. The JPM Composite PMI rose to the highest since Feb 2022 at 53.5, up from 51.3 in May.

  • Underlying indicators weren't as healthy, to be sure: new orders weakened to the lowest since Jul 2020, and employment readings slipped. But overall, the acceleration in the index stood in contrast to most of the weak June readings seen across many major economies.
  • That's almost entirely the result of an improvement in China as optimism improves from the depths of Covid lockdowns (the composite PMI rose to 55.3 vs 42.2 in May, 37.2 April).
  • Indeed, even as developed market composite PMIs slipped (to a 5-month low 52.5, from 53.7 in May, with a rise in Japan more than offset by declines in the US / Europe), the emerging market composite hit a post-pandemic high of 55.2 (vs 46.9 in May), driven by China.
  • That's the first time the EM composite has exceeded its developed market counterpart since December 2020.


Source: JPM/S&P Global, MNI

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