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EMERGING MARKETS: NBH, SARB and CBRT in Focus Across CEEMEA Next Week

EMERGING MARKETS
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market News
  • Hungary (Nov 19): The National Bank of Hungary is expected to keep its base rate unchanged at 6.5%, with the sharp sell-off in HUF since the start of October likely to prompt a hawkish shift in central bank communication as well. Indeed, many analysts have pushed back rate cut calls having previously coalesced around the idea of a 25bp easing step at the December meeting.
  • South Africa (Nov 21): The SARB will likely deliver the second back-to-back 25bp cut after starting its easing cycle in September. The CPI report, that will be released the day before the meeting, is expected to show that headline inflation eased further in October, approaching the lower end of the SARB's target range, which would support the case for looser monetary policy.
  • Turkey (Nov 21): The CBRT is expected to keep its one-week repo rate on hold at 50% with month-on-month CPI readings consistently showing above 2%. However, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s recent comments, where he linked the projected deceleration in inflation to an easing in borrowing costs, could mean a cut at the December meeting is on the cards given that markets expect the gradual decline in headline inflation to continue through to year-end.
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  • Hungary (Nov 19): The National Bank of Hungary is expected to keep its base rate unchanged at 6.5%, with the sharp sell-off in HUF since the start of October likely to prompt a hawkish shift in central bank communication as well. Indeed, many analysts have pushed back rate cut calls having previously coalesced around the idea of a 25bp easing step at the December meeting.
  • South Africa (Nov 21): The SARB will likely deliver the second back-to-back 25bp cut after starting its easing cycle in September. The CPI report, that will be released the day before the meeting, is expected to show that headline inflation eased further in October, approaching the lower end of the SARB's target range, which would support the case for looser monetary policy.
  • Turkey (Nov 21): The CBRT is expected to keep its one-week repo rate on hold at 50% with month-on-month CPI readings consistently showing above 2%. However, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s recent comments, where he linked the projected deceleration in inflation to an easing in borrowing costs, could mean a cut at the December meeting is on the cards given that markets expect the gradual decline in headline inflation to continue through to year-end.