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Empire and Philly Surveys Continue To Imply Downside Risk To ISM Mfg

US DATA
  • Empire and Philly manufacturing surveys for December both came in a weaker than expected but tell conflicting stories, with Empire sliding (from +4.5 to -11.2, cons -1) and Philly bouncing (from -19.4 to -13.8, cons -10).
  • Further adding to the mixed signals, within Empire, the six months ahead measure of business conditions bounced off lows since Sep 01, from -6.1 to +6.3.
  • The net result is the two surveys continue to imply downside risk to the ISM manufacturing survey, as has been the case with the average Regional Fed surveys for some months now, even after ISM mfg fell below 50 for the first time in November to 49.0.
  • Ultimately though, whilst manufacturing has historically given a good steer ahead of economic downturns, the service sector carries a much larger weight and the continued resilience in ISM services (surprisingly bouncing from 54.4 to 56.5) doesn’t show a sign of imminent recession just yet.

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