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Free AccessEmpire Mfg Index Sees Another Large Miss But Its Own Noise Dents Impact
- The Empire manufacturing index was notably softer than expected in March as it slid from -5.8 to -24.6 (cons -7.9), although its recent noise limits its impact.
- Indeed, the miss of 16.7pts relative to consensus is only its sixth largest downside surprise since Jan’22, with the index having twice breached -30 over that period.
- Similarly, its six-month ahead outlook fell from 14.7 to 2.9 but is off -6s from Jul and Nov last year.
- The survey ran Mar 2-9 and so likely just missed any material regional banking crisis-related pessimism.
- Awaiting other regional Fed manufacturing surveys, the cleanest takeaway for now is that these surveys broadly continue to point to downside risk in the ISM manufacturing survey.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.