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Empire Mfg Index Sees Another Large Miss But Its Own Noise Dents Impact

US DATA
  • The Empire manufacturing index was notably softer than expected in March as it slid from -5.8 to -24.6 (cons -7.9), although its recent noise limits its impact.
  • Indeed, the miss of 16.7pts relative to consensus is only its sixth largest downside surprise since Jan’22, with the index having twice breached -30 over that period.
  • Similarly, its six-month ahead outlook fell from 14.7 to 2.9 but is off -6s from Jul and Nov last year.
  • The survey ran Mar 2-9 and so likely just missed any material regional banking crisis-related pessimism.
  • Awaiting other regional Fed manufacturing surveys, the cleanest takeaway for now is that these surveys broadly continue to point to downside risk in the ISM manufacturing survey.

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