End of Day Natural Gas Summary: Henry Hub Recoups Earlier Losses

Henry Hub front dropped during the day, although the front month remained above its daily low of $2.554/MMBtu. Forecasts for warmer weather will cap heating demand and lower feedgas to LNG facilities is hampering liquefaction consumption.

• US Natgas OCT 23 at 2.64$/mmbtu
• US Natgas MAR 24 down -2.8% at 3.16$/mmbtu
• Flows to Sabine Pass LNG have decline further today down to 3.7bcf/d compared to around 4.5bcf/d last week while Corpus Christi flows are also down by 0.6bcf/d. The drop in flows adds to the month long Cove Point outage due to maintenance. Total natural gas delivery flows to US LNG export terminals are today estimated down at 10.9bcf/d.
• The lastest GFS weather forecast for the next seven days has temperatures between 3.88 and 4.92 degrees Celsius above the 30 year average.
• US domestic natural gas production was yesterday up again slightly to 102.0cf/d and above the average from the previous week of 101.4bcf/d.
• Domestic natural gas consumption has again increased slightly today up to 68.4bcf/d. The US weather forecast has turned warmer across central and eastern areas since yesterday but below normal is still expected in the west throughout the coming two weeks.
• The total estimated quantity of LNG on tankers that have not unloaded for at least 20 days increased 30% over the last week to 3.11mn tons as of 24 September, the highest level since 22 May and 49% above the 2018-2022 average.
• Global LNG imports rose by 8% on the week to 7.6mn tons in the week 18-24 September, driven by shipments into India and some European countries according to BNEF.
• China’s demand for spot winter LNG cargoes may fall from last year, as alternative supplies keep the market “generally in balance” according to Sinopec Economic and Development Research Institute.
• Qatar’s energy minister Saad al-Kaabi sees the requirement for natural gas until well after 2050 and must go hand in hand with renewables development according to Energy Intelligence.
• The Hoegh Giant FSRU is heading to Brazil to start operations as the country’s sixth LNG import terminal, according to Bloomberg ship tracking data.
• There are around nine LNG cargoes currently waiting offshore Europe for new orders or higher prices later in the winter, according to ICIS.