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POWER: End of Day Summary: FR-DE 2026 Discount at Lowest Since Early Jan

POWER
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The French-German front-year power contract discount has narrowed to its lowest since 10 January at €23.10/MWh at the time of writing as losses in TTF and emissions have weighed down both contracts. Closer in, average temperatures in NW Europe will be on a general upward trend over 18-26 February, with stronger wind towards the end of the month. 

  • Nordic Base Power MAR 25 down 2.4% at 40.15 EUR/MWh
  • France Base Power CAL 26 down 4.6% at 66.30 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Base Power CAL 26 down 4.9% at 89.40 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 25 down 3.4% at 77.05 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas MAR 25 down 5.9% at 47.715 EUR/MWh
  • Rotterdam Coal MAR 25 down 3.2% at 96.5 USD/MT
  • TTF has fallen today for the fifth consecutive session, with warmer, windier weather in late Feb adding to bearish sentiment. Ukraine peace talks, discussions around relaxing storage targets and record US LNG exports have also added pressure to TTF in recent days.
  • EU ETS December 2025 allowances have remained in red towards the end of the session amid price falls in TTF, with warmer temperatures in NW Europe and higher wind over 19-25 February– potentially lowering demand and reducing the call for fossil-fuel-fired generation.
  • Serbia plans to connect its day-ahead power market with the EU by 4Q26 through the Hungarian and Bulgarian borders as it hopes to potentially receive an exemption from the EU’s CBAM.
  • German fossil-fuel generation is on track to rise above last month’s and February 2024 levels, supported by higher power demand and lower onshore wind generation. Forecasts for warmer, windier weather for the end of this month are expected to weigh on fossil-fuel power generation.
  • Greece plans to improve grid access for small and medium-sized renewable energy investors, with changes to connection evaluations and new energy storage initiatives.
  • Greece has proposed a draft bill to extend the deadline for PV units to install set-point systems, while introducing penalties, reduced tariffs, and potential disconnections for continued non-compliance.
  • European energy companies face growing uranium supply risks as Kazakhstan redirects more exports to Russia and China, while Niger’s political instability further strains EU supply chains.
  • - Poland’s PSE will build a second power link with Lithuania by 2030.
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The French-German front-year power contract discount has narrowed to its lowest since 10 January at €23.10/MWh at the time of writing as losses in TTF and emissions have weighed down both contracts. Closer in, average temperatures in NW Europe will be on a general upward trend over 18-26 February, with stronger wind towards the end of the month. 

  • Nordic Base Power MAR 25 down 2.4% at 40.15 EUR/MWh
  • France Base Power CAL 26 down 4.6% at 66.30 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Base Power CAL 26 down 4.9% at 89.40 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 25 down 3.4% at 77.05 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas MAR 25 down 5.9% at 47.715 EUR/MWh
  • Rotterdam Coal MAR 25 down 3.2% at 96.5 USD/MT
  • TTF has fallen today for the fifth consecutive session, with warmer, windier weather in late Feb adding to bearish sentiment. Ukraine peace talks, discussions around relaxing storage targets and record US LNG exports have also added pressure to TTF in recent days.
  • EU ETS December 2025 allowances have remained in red towards the end of the session amid price falls in TTF, with warmer temperatures in NW Europe and higher wind over 19-25 February– potentially lowering demand and reducing the call for fossil-fuel-fired generation.
  • Serbia plans to connect its day-ahead power market with the EU by 4Q26 through the Hungarian and Bulgarian borders as it hopes to potentially receive an exemption from the EU’s CBAM.
  • German fossil-fuel generation is on track to rise above last month’s and February 2024 levels, supported by higher power demand and lower onshore wind generation. Forecasts for warmer, windier weather for the end of this month are expected to weigh on fossil-fuel power generation.
  • Greece plans to improve grid access for small and medium-sized renewable energy investors, with changes to connection evaluations and new energy storage initiatives.
  • Greece has proposed a draft bill to extend the deadline for PV units to install set-point systems, while introducing penalties, reduced tariffs, and potential disconnections for continued non-compliance.
  • European energy companies face growing uranium supply risks as Kazakhstan redirects more exports to Russia and China, while Niger’s political instability further strains EU supply chains.
  • - Poland’s PSE will build a second power link with Lithuania by 2030.