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Ending The Week Notably Steeper

US TSYS
  • Treasuries are off session highs although have given back some of the losses seen after the release of two US citizens held hostage in Gaza and the US pushing Israel to delay its invasion. Whilst landing late, the upcoming S&P sovereign rating for Italy expected from 1600ET will likely draw some attention.
  • With cash benchmarks trading 2.5-9.5bp richer (5Y leads, 30Y underperforms), the day’s rally can be attributed to a mix of positioning ahead of weekend worry re: the Israel-Hamas conflict and several cycle highs across the core global FI yield landscape presenting enticing entry points for participants (a case in point being the 10Y rising to 4.993% but not quite breaching 5% and now back to 4.92%).
  • 2s10s at -16.4bps is near unchanged on the day, close to recent steeps of -14.5bps
  • TYZ3 trades at 105-31+ below session highs of 106-06 but having lifted off Thursday’s post-Powell low of 105-10+. Resistance is seen at 106-15+ (Oct 18 high).
  • In DC, the hunt for a House Speaker will continue next week with Jordan losing the nomination after failing a new conference vote following unsuccessful attempts, whilst Biden’s $105B funding request for Ukraine (the bulk at $61.4B), Israel and other foreign policy objectives compared to the $100B touted.
  • With the FOMC entering media blackout, next week sees advance national accounts for Q3 (real GDP cons 4.5%, Atlanta Fed nowcast 5.4%) on Thursday, which will also give a hint of the potential latest monthly print for September landing the following day.
  • Corporate earnings also come more into focus, with Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon and Meta all reporting in the biggest earnings week of the quarter with 38% of the S&P 500 up.
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